With the longest day of the year now behind us, there is a bit of a summer lull ahead as those who can, go on vacation (that would be almost all of Europe), leading to a slowdown in newsflow.
As DB’s Jim Reid writes, the main highlight this week is likely to be the flash PMIs for June tomorrow, with manufacturing, services and composite PMIs coming out from around the world. Back in May, the PMIs rebounded from April’s rock-bottom prints. For example, the Euro Area composite PMI rose to 31.9 from 13.6, while in the US the composite PMI recovered to 37.0 from 27.0. For June the range of expectations across Europe/US are generally in the 40s with U.K. at the lower end and the US manufacturing possibly scraping to just over 50. Given these are diffusion indices and simply reflect whether conditions are getting better or worse then surely at some point soon these numbers are going to massively spike up regardless of the actual level of growth.
While a rising PMI headline number may give some cheer that confidence is returning the data in itself is forward looking which brings about two interesting points. It could be highly subject to change depending on the developments of a second wave virus (a la Apple on Friday). As analysts at ING note, looking at other data, including Google’s mobility index, the economy still appears to be operating well below its pre-virus level.
There are various other data releases but it’s not a big week for data. See the day by day calendar at the end for the full slate. Note that the IMF’s latest economic forecasts are released this Wednesday. In a website blogpost last week, their Chief Economist Gita Gopinath said that the update “is likely to show negative growth rates even worse than previously estimated.”
Below is a summary of key events by day, courtesy of Deutsche Bank.
- Data: UK June CBI industrial trends survey, US May Chicago Fed National Activity Index, existing home sales, Euro Area advance June consumer confidence
- Central Banks: Bank of Canada Governor Macklem speaks
- Data: Manufacturing, services and composite PMIs from Australia, Japan, France, Germany, Euro Area, UK and the US, Japan final May machine tool orders, US May new home sales, June Richmond Fed manufacturing index
- Data: Japan final April leading index, France June business confidence, Germany June Ifo business climate indicator, US weekly MBA mortgage applications, April FHFA house price index
- Central Banks: Reserve Bank of New Zealand monetary policy decision, Bank of Japan release Summary of Opinions from June meeting, Fed’s Evans and Bullard speak
- Politics: Parliamentary election in Mongolia
- Other: IMF release World Economic Outlook Update
- Data: Japan April all industry activity index, Germany July GfK consumer confidence, UK June CBI distributive trades survey, US May advance goods trade balance, preliminary May wholesale inventories, durable goods orders, nondefence capital goods orders ex air, third reading of Q1 GDP, personal consumption, core PCE, weekly initial jobless claims, June Kansas City Fed manufacturing index
- Central Banks: Monetary policy decisions from central banks in Turkey and Mexico, Fed’s Bostic and BoE’s Haldane speak, ECB releases account of monetary policy meeting
- Data: France June consumer confidence, Euro Area May M3 money supply, Italy June consumer confidence index, economic sentiment, US May personal income, personal spending, final June University of Michigan sentiment
* * *
Focusing on the US, Goldman writes that the key economic data releases this week are the jobless claims and durable goods reports on Thursday and the core PCE report on Friday. There are several scheduled speaking engagements from Fed officials this week.
Monday, June 22
- 10:00 AM Existing home sales, May (GS -10.0%, consensus -5.6%, last -17.8%): After falling by 17.8% in April, we estimate that existing home sales fell another 10.0% in May. Existing home sales are an input into the brokers’ commissions component of residential investment in the GDP report.
- Tuesday, June 23
- 09:45 AM Markit Flash US manufacturing PMI, June preliminary (consensus 50.8, last 39.8): Markit Flash US services PMI, June preliminary (consensus 48.0, last 37.5)
- 10:00 AM New home sales, May (GS +2.5%, consensus +1.9%, last +0.6%): We estimate that new home sales increased by 2.5% in May, reflecting higher new mortgage loan applications.
- 10:00 AM Richmond Fed manufacturing index, June (consensus -11, last -27)
- 01:00 PM St. Louis Fed President Bullard (FOMC non-voter) speaks: St. Louis Fed President James Bullard will discuss the US economy and monetary policy in a webinar hosted by the Milken Institute. Audience Q&A is expected.
Wednesday, June 24
- 09:00 AM FHFA house price index, April (consensus +0.3%, last +0.1%)
- 12:30 PM Chicago Fed President Charles Evans (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Chicago Fed President Charles Evans will participate in an online discussion about the economy and monetary policy hosted by the Corridor Business Journal. Prepared text and audience Q&A are expected.
- 03:00 PM St. Louis Fed President Bullard (FOMC non-voter) speaks: St. Louis Fed President James Bullard will take part in an online discussion hosted by Louisville’s Metro Chamber of Commerce. Audience Q&A is expected.
Thursday, June 25
- 08:30 AM Advance goods trade balance, May (GS -$66.0bn, consensus -$68.0bn, last -$69.7bn): We estimate that the goods trade deficit decreased slightly to $66.0bn in May on a coronacrisis-driven decline in imports but some stabilization in exports following sharp declines in the spring.
- 08:30 AM Durable goods orders, May preliminary (GS +10.0%, consensus +10.9%, last -17.7%): Durable goods orders ex-transportation, May preliminary (GS -1.5%, consensus +2.3%, last -7.7%): Core capital goods orders, May preliminary (GS -2.5%, consensus +1.5%, last -6.1%); Core capital goods shipments, May preliminary (GS -2.5%, consensus -0.5%, last -5.7%): We expect durable goods orders to increase 10.0% in the preliminary May report, reflecting stabilization in aircraft orders. We expect a 2.5% decline in core capital goods orders, given weak industrial production and export levels.
- 08:30 AM Wholesale inventories, May preliminary (consensus +0.4%, last +0.3%): Retail inventories, May (last -3.6%)
- 08:30 AM GDP (third), Q1 (GS -5.0%, consensus -5.0%, last -5.0%); Personal consumption, Q1 (GS -6.8%, consensus -6.8%, last -6.8%): We expect no revision on net in the third vintage of the Q1 GDP report (previously reported at -5.0% qoq saar), reflecting upward revisions in the May retail sales report and modest downward revisions in the quarterly services survey.
- 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended June 20 (GS 1,450k, consensus 1,350k, last 1,508k); Continuing jobless claims, week ended June 13 (last 20,544k): We estimate initial jobless claims declined but remain elevated at 1,450k in the week ended June 20.
- 09:30 AM Dallas Fed President Kaplan (FOMC voter) speaks: Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan will take part in a video conference hosted by the Bretton Woods Committee on transformation of the world economy. Audience Q&A is expected.
- 11:00 AM Atlanta Fed President Bostic (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic will take part in a video conversation hosted by the Florida Chamber of Commerce on the state’s economy. Audience Q&A is expected.
- 11:00 AM Kansas City Fed manufacturing index, June (consensus -10, last -19)
Friday, June 26
- 08:30 AM Personal income, May (GS -6.8%, consensus -6.0%, last 10.5%); Personal spending, May (GS +10.0% consensus +8.8%, last -13.6%); PCE price index, May (GS -0.04%, consensus flat, -0.47%); Core PCE price index, May (GS +0.10%, consensus flat, last -0.39%); PCE price index (yoy), May (GS +0.39%, consensus +0.5%, last +0.54%); Core PCE price index (yoy), May (GS +1.03%, consensus +0.9%, last +1.04%): Based on details in the PPI, CPI, and import price reports, we forecast that the core PCE price index rose by 0.10% month-over-month in May, corresponding to a 1.03% increase from a year earlier. Additionally, we expect that the headline PCE price index decreased by 0.04% in May, corresponding to a 0.39% increase from a year earlier. We expect a 6.8% decline in personal income in May and a 10.0% increase in personal spending.
- 10:00 AM University of Michigan consumer sentiment, June final (GS 79.2, consensus 79.0, last 78.9): We expect the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index to edge up by 0.3pt to 79.2 in the final estimate for June, reflecting further reopening and a rebound in our Twitter Economic Sentiment Index.
Source: Deutsche, Goldman, BofA
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