With earnings season now over, looking at the week ahead the highlight will be the Jackson Hole gathering on Thursday and Friday, where central bankers will be meeting (virtually this year) for the annual economic symposium. This theme this year is “Navigating the Decade Ahead: Implications for Monetary Policy”, and one of the key highlights will be Fed Chair Powell’s speech on Thursday on the topic of the monetary policy review. As DB’s Henry Allen writes, the bank’s US economists note that while it’s possible that the policy review results will be released along with Powell’s appearance, they think it’s more likely that he summarizes the key findings and outlines the likely implications for the Fed moving forward. They think instead the review results won’t be released until the next meeting in mid-September. In addition to Powell, central bank watchers will have plenty of other speakers to look out for at the gathering, including Bank of England Governor Bailey, ECB chief economist Lane, and Bank of Canada Governor Macklem.
Turning to politics, attention will also be on the Republican National Convention taking place this week from Monday to Thursday, even if there aren’t likely to be as many market-moving headlines compared to Jackson Hole. Nevertheless, a CNN report said that President Trump would be appearing on every night of the convention, according to a Republican familiar with the convention planning, on top of his own speech planned for the Thursday night. So that could generate some news depending on the nature of any remarks. There are just over 10 weeks to go now until election day on November 3rd, and according to the polling averages, President Trump continues to lag behind Biden.
On the data side, we don’t have many top-tier releases with the US jobs report not until the following week. However, tomorrow will see both the Ifo’s business climate indicator from Germany, as well as the Conference Board’s consumer confidence from the US. The recent breakdown in fiscal negotiations in Congress could weigh on consumer attitudes, and DB economists see the number falling to 92.0 (vs. 92.6 in July).
Courtesy of Deutsche Bank, here is a day-by-day calendar of events:
- Data: US Chicago Fed July National Activity Index
- Politics: Republican National Convention begins
- Data: Germany final Q2 GDP, August Ifo business climate, US June FHFA house price index, August Conference Board consumer confidence, July new home sales, August Richmond Fed manufacturing index
- Central Banks: Fed’s Daly speaks
- Earnings: Salesforce, Medtronic, Intuit, Autodesk
- Data: US weekly MBA mortgage applications, preliminary July durable goods orders, nondefence capital goods orders ex air
- Central Banks: ECB’s Schnabel and BoE’s Haldane speak
- Earnings: Royal Bank of Canada
- Data: China July industrial profits, Japan June all industry activity index, final July machine tool orders, France August business confidence, Euro Area July M3 money supply, Italy June industrial sales, industrial orders, US second reading Q2 GDP, weekly initial jobless claims, July pending home sales, August Kansas City Fed manufacturing activity
- Central Banks: Economic Symposium at Jackson Hole commences, Fed Chair Powell, Bank of Canada Governor Macklem and ECB’s Lane speak, Bank of Korea monetary policy decision
- Earnings: Dollar General, HP
- Politics: President Trump speaks at Republican National Convention
- Data: Germany September GfK consumer confidence, France preliminary August CPI, final Q2 GDP, Italy August consumer confidence index, Euro Area final August consumer confidence, Canada June GDP, US July personal income, personal spending, advance goods trade balance, PCE deflator, preliminary July wholesale inventories, August MNI Chicago PMI, final August University of Michigan consumer sentiment index
- Central Banks: Economic Symposium at Jackson Hole concludes, BoE Governor Bailey speaks
Finally, here is Goldman’s take on the key events in the US, where the key event this week is Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium. The key economic data releases this week are the durable goods report on Wednesday, the second Q2 GDP estimate on Thursday, and the personal income report on Friday.
Monday, August 24
- There are no major economic data releases scheduled.
Tuesday, August 25
- 09:00 AM FHFA house price index, June (consensus +0.3%, last -0.3%)
- 09:00 AM S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index, June (GS flat, consensus +0.10%, last +0.04%): We estimate the S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index remained unchanged in June, following a 0.04% increase in May.
- 10:00 AM Conference Board consumer confidence, August (GS 94.0, consensus 93.0, last 92.6): We estimate that the Conference Board consumer confidence index increased by 1.4pt to 94.0 August, as an improving virus situation and rising stock prices could boost confidence.
- 10:00 AM New home sales, July (GS +2.5%, consensus +1.2%, last +13.8%): We estimate that new home sales rose by 2.5% in July, partly reflecting a boost from higher mortgage applications.
- 10:00 AM Richmond Fed Manufacturing, August (consensus 10, last 10)
- 03:25 PM San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly (FOMC non-voter) speaks: San Francisco Fed President Mary Daily will discuss inequity and Covid-19 in a virtual panel hosted by the Rotary Club of Oakland.
Wednesday, August 26
- 08:30 AM Durable goods orders, July preliminary (GS +5.5%, consensus +4.5%, last +7.6%); Durable goods orders ex-transportation, July preliminary (GS +2.5%, consensus +1.7%, last +3.6%); Core capital goods orders, July preliminary (GS +2.5%, consensus +2.0%, last +3.4%); Core capital goods shipments, July preliminary (GS +2.5%, consensus +2.0%, last +3.3%): We expect durable goods orders to increase 5.5% in the preliminary June report, reflecting improvements in net aircraft orders. We expect a 2.5% increase in core capital goods orders, given the continued industrial rebound.
Thursday, August 27
- 08:30 AM GDP, Q2 second (GS -31.6%, consensus -32.5%, last -32.9%); Personal consumption, Q2 second (GS -32.0%, consensus -34.6%, last -34.6%): We estimate the second estimate of Q2 GDP will show an upward revision to -31.6% (qoq ar), compared to -32.9% as reported in the advance release. The quarterly services survey revealed more resilience in consumer activity than the BEA assumed in the first vintage of Q2 GDP, with surprisingly modest weakness in healthcare services and personal and household services. Accordingly, we expect a 2.6pp upward revision to real consumption growth to -32.0%. Given the weakness in motion picture and music recording revenues, we look for a sizable downward revision to Q2 intellectual property investment.
- 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended August 22 (GS 1,000k, consensus 1,000k, last 1,106k); Continuing jobless claims, week ended August 15 (consensus 14,400k, last 14,844k): We estimate initial jobless claims fell to 1000k in the week ended August 22.
- 09:10 AM Fed Chair Powell (FOMC voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will deliver a speech titled “Monetary Policy Framework Review” at the Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank’s annual Economic Symposium in Jackson Hole, hosted as a virtual event. The topic of the conference this year is titled “Navigating the Decade Ahead: Implications for Monetary Policy.” Prepared text and media Q&A are expected. The event will be livestreamed.
- 10:00 AM Pending home sales, July (GS +4.0%, consensus +2.0%, last +16.6%): We estimate that pending home sales increased by 4.0% in July based on regional home sales data, following a 16.6% surge in June. We have found pending home sales to be a useful leading indicator of existing home sales with a one-to-two-month lag.
Friday, August 28
- 08:30 AM Personal income, July (GS +0.1%, consensus –0.4%, last -1.1%); Personal spending, July (GS +2.0% consensus +1.5%, last +5.6%); PCE price index, July (GS +0.40%, consensus +0.4%, last +0.37%); Core PCE price index, July (GS +0.45%, consensus +0.5%, last +0.20%); PCE price index (yoy), July (GS +0.98%, consensus +1.0%, last +0.75%); Core PCE price index (yoy), July (GS +1.24%, consensus +1.2%, last +0.95%): Based on details in the PPI, CPI, and import price reports, we forecast that the core PCE price index rose by 0.45% month-over-month in July, corresponding to a 1.24% increase from a year earlier. Additionally, we expect that the headline PCE price index increased by 0.40% in July, corresponding to a 0.98% increase from a year earlier. We expect a 0.1% increase in personal income in July and a 2.0% increase in personal spending.
- 08:30 AM Advance goods trade balance, July (GS -$69.9bn, consensus -$72.2bn, last -$71.0bn): We estimate that the goods trade deficit decreased by $1.1bn to $69.9bn in July compared to the final June report, as both exports and imports likely rose further.
- 08:30 AM Wholesale inventories, July preliminary (consensus -0.8%, last -1.4%)
- 09:45 AM Chicago PMI, August (GS 51.9, consensus 52.5, last 51.9): We estimate that the Chicago PMI remained unchanged at 51.9 in August—following a 15.3pt increase in July—reflecting mixed manufacturing surveys so far in the month.
- 10:00 AM University of Michigan consumer sentiment, August final (GS 73.0, consensus 72.8, last 72.8): We expect the University of Michigan consumer sentiment to edge 0.2pt higher from the preliminary estimate for August, in which the index rose 0.3pt. The report’s measure of 5- to 10-year inflation expectations increased by one-tenth to 2.7% in the preliminary report.
Source: Deustche Bank, Goldman, BofA
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